Thursday, April 4, 2019

MPSA 2019 (Part 2)

As the title suggests, this is the second paper I'm presenting at MPSA 2019. (Click here if you want to see the presentation for the first one). This paper looks at whether or not there was a Shy Trump Voter effect in the run-up to the 2016 election. I know that a lot of people are fully convinced that there wasn't one. They'll be pleased to hear that my paper supports that assertion. Although, I honestly expected there to be one when I set out on it. But c'est la vie with science.

A lot of the papers that looked for the presence of Shy Trump Voters in the polls (regardless of whether they asserted the presence of these voters or not) were focused on the different of modes. That is, comparing people who answered to another human being vs a machine or submitted them online. But any insignificance could be due to the fact that White Trump supporters (read: Most Trump supporters) felt no reason to censure themselves when talking to another White individual. Also, few studies look at the effect over time-- and such an effect could be rather volatile. That's where my paper comes in!

I'll post the working paper once I incorporate feedback. That'll probably be sometime in May.

Click here for the presentation.

prlicari Student in Political Behavior and Elections

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