Data and Other Fables – Peter Licari

Some reflections, hopes, and plans for 2026

And looking back on how I did in 2025

Essays

Reflections

2025 is (thank Christ) just about over. Last year¹ I wrote this blog post looking back on my goals for 2024 and outlining my goals for 2025. This will be the third year that…

How to Manually Simulate (Seasonal) Time Series in R

Looping through AR up through to SARIMAX series

Simulations

Methodology

R

Time Series

I do a lot with time series forecasting for my day-job. Coming from a methodological background emphasizing single-shot studies (cross-sectional analyses, experiments taking…

How (and when) pre-treatment variables can help generalize experimental results

Featuring Jeff the Shark in an experiment I wish I had enough money to run.

Simulations

Methodology

Experiments

R

This post is inspired by this question from David Brady (and reposted by Stephen Wild) on Bluesky:

Some reflections, hopes, and plans for 2025

And looking back on how I did in 2024

Essays

Reflections

2024 has wrapped! Last year, I wrote this post that had my reflections for 2023 and my hopes for 2024. I remember watching a CGPGrey video forever ago where he discussed how…

I Simulated 60,000 Games of Chutes and Ladders to See How Long the Average Game Takes.

An investigation using Python, R, and DuckDB

Simulations

R

Python

Analyses

Games

The other day, at my daughter’s behest, we sat down and played a game that I hadn’t played since I was close to her age: Chutes and Ladders¹ I’ll be honest, I was never much…

Getting Worse to Get Better

Some thoughts about improving in data science…and bowling, I guess.

Essays

Reflections

It may come as a surprise to some people who know me, but I actually have other hobbies other than “doing stuff with data.” This post is concerns some experiences I’ve had…

What I Learned From My First Non-Academic Conference

Reflections on ODSC East 2024

Essays

Reflections

Reviews

This week, I attended the 2024 Open Data Science Conference (ODSC) in Boston, Massachusetts. It was the first conference I attended since Covid¹ and my first non-academic…

How Popular Are Birthdays Over Time?

A datacentric way to celebrate turning 30

R

Dataviz

Analyses

Here are two fun facts about 30:

Some reflections, hopes, and plans for 2024

Essays

Reflections

2023 has just about come to a close. I thought I was due for an audit on how things went and where (I think) things are going.

The Traditional Margin of Error When You Have Oversamples in Your Survey is Wrong

Illustrated using Pokemon

Simulations

Methodology

Surveys

R

Not too long ago, pollsters and social scientists on X (the decaying husk of Twitter) found themselves discussing a recent CNN poll detailing President Biden’s job…

How to add a Variable Font to a Quarto PDF on Windows

Or: How I was driven completely insane by Google Fonts

Tutorials

R

Quarto

This is one of those posts motivated by never ever wanting to subject anyone to the insanity that I experienced while struggling through what only seems to be a simple idea.

What to do when R punches you in the mouth

R

Tutorials

Attaining mastery in R is not about avoiding hiccups, but about learning what to do when you’re inevitably confronted with them. However, this is hardly covered in most…

Simulating My Daughter’s First Board Game in Python

Simulations

Python

Games

Analyses

Children learn as they play. Most importantly, in play children learn how to learn.

Book Review: Theory and Reality

Essays

Reviews

Theory and Reality is an ambitious book that aims to accessibly cover a large swath of historical and philosophical ground. In many ways, it lives up to that ambition…

Thoughts on the 2020 Election

Essays

I thought I would post my prediction for the election and a few thoughts regarding it more generally. I’ll be peppering in some maps that I’ve made to help illustrate my…

How to Do Unequal Randomization in Qualtrics Surveys

Tutorials

Methodology

Surveys

Recently, some coauthors and I were working on a survey experiment in Qualtrics where we were assigning people into 4 different groups. This is something that Qualtrics can…

Surveying is a Beautifully Foolish Endeavor

Essays

Reviews

I binged Hank Green’s A Beautifully Foolish Endeavor yesterday and it is, let me tell you, just fantastic. I don’t plan on writing a longer review because I didn’t really…

Capturing a PowerPoint/Google Slides Lecture with Open Source Software

Tutorials

A number of schools are either shutting down or transitioning classes to an online format due to the novel corona virus (also known as COVID-19). (UF just let us know…